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MARCH 19,  2011

DAMAGE ASSESSMENT – AT 8:54 P.M. ET:  Fox News has a damage assessment, which we presume comes from reliable sources:

Military strikes by the U.S. and its allies against targets in Libya Saturday have "severely disabled" Libyan leader's Muammar al-Qaddafi's air defenses, a U.S. official confirms to Fox News.

The official also warns they do not know what Qaddafi will do next following the military strikes.

"It's too soon to predict what he and his ground forces may do in response to today's strikes," the official told Fox News.

Despite the blow, Qaddafi remained defiant as he threatened to attack military and civilian targets in the Mediterranean in retaliation of international coalition strikes on Libya.

"It is now necessary to open the stores and arm all the masses with all types of weapons to defend the independence, unity and honor of Libya," Qaddafi said in a speech broadcast on Libya state television, according to Reuters. He also warns that weapons depots are being opened to arm the Libyan people in defense.

COMMENT:  It's impossible to know what is accurate at this hour.  One of the greatest considerations in the next few days will be the loyalty of Qaddafi's forces.  If they start to defect, this could be over quickly.  If they remain loyal, this could turn very messy.

I will speculate that lines of communication to Qaddafi are being kept open, especially by the foreign ministries of Europe.  These lines could be used to negotiate his exit from Libya.  But who will then take over?  That should be among our greatest worries right now.

March 19, 2011       Permalink

THE TOMAHAWK ATTACK – AT 7:12 P.M. ET:  The United States fired 110 Tomahawk cruise missiles into Libya today, acting as part of a coalition of nations.  CNN reports:

Tripoli, Libya (CNN) -- Hours after French, British and American military forces unleashed cruise missiles and fighter jets, a defiant Moammar Gadhafi said Libya will fight back against undeserved "naked aggression."

A coalition that includes Canada and Italy made good Saturday on international warnings to Gadhafi, hammering Libyan military positions in the first phase of an operation that will include enforcement of a no-fly zone.

More than 110 Tomahawk missiles fired from American and British ships and submarines hit about 20 Libyan air and missile defense targets in western portions of the country, U.S. Vice Adm. William Gortney said at a Pentagon briefing.

The U.S. will conduct a damage assessment of the sites, which include SA-5 missiles and communications facilities. A senior U.S. military official, who was not authorized to speak on the record, said the missiles landed near Misrata and Tripoli, the capital and Gadhafi's stronghold.

COMMENT:  Americans will differ on whether we should have participated.  There are strong arguments on both sides.  My own feeling is that we have acted correctly, even if others in his administration – and it appears to be true – had to drag the commander-in-chief along. 

We must play a role here, in part because our military leadership and technical skill are needed, and in part because we never want it said that in the face of a potential massacre, we let others do it.  No one can guarantee that this will work out, and no one can guarantee that the Libyan rebels will eventually turn out to be friendly.  We are taking risks, but, on balance, I think they're worth it.  If you disagree, please write and we'll run your dissent at our Forum.

March 19, 2011       Permalink

BULLETIN – U.S. IN ACTION IN LIBYA – AT 4:12 P.M. ET:  American ships have launched cruise missiles at Libyan air defenses.  We are following.

BULLETIN – FRENCH JETS OVER LIBYA – AT 11:09 A.M. ET:  Several news agencies are confirming that French jets are over Libya.  We don't yet know the extent of the action.

However, Libyan government forces have already entered Benghazi, the rebels' most important stronghold.  It is almost impossible to use conventional air power inside a city without inflicting civilian casualties, but air action might prevent more government reinforcements from entering Banghazi. 

We are reminded of Douglas MacArthur's admonition that all military disasters begin with two words:  Too late.  We hope it isn't too late.  Obviously, we will be following the developing action.

The president of the United States is in Rio, where the big issue this morning is whether there'll be a joint press conference with the Brazilian president.  Brazil, a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, abstained from the vote Friday authorizing military force in Libya.  This is an unfriendly act, and Mr. Obama, citing pressing business at home, might have canceled his trip to Brazil as an expression of our displeasure.  But Mr. Outreach doesn't do displeasure.

March 19, 2011       Permalink

COST OF LIVING AT RECORD HIGH – AT 10:49 A.M. ET:  With attention focused on Libya and Japan, this slipped by and didn't get the notice it deserved.  It's expensive living in the United States.  The recession has apparently produced no national WalMarting of America.  From CNBC:

One would think that after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Americans could at least catch a break for a while with deflationary forces keeping the cost of living relatively low. That’s not the case.

A special index created by the Labor Department to measure the actual cost of living for Americans hit a record high in February, according to data released Thursday, surpassing the old high in July 2008. The Chained Consumer Price Index, released along with the more widely-watched CPI, increased 0.5 percent to 127.4, from 126.8 in January. In July 2008, just as the housing crisis was tightening its grip, the Chained Consumer Price Index hit its previous record of 126.9.

“The Federal Reserve continues to focus on the rate of change in inflation,” said Peter Bookvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. “Sure, it’s moving at a slower pace, but the absolute cost of living is now back at a record high in a country that has seven million less jobs.”

COMMENT:  That may go higher still as a result of the disruptions in Japan.  It is one of the reasons why calls for tax increases, the standard war cry of the left, are being met with such resistance.  Americans do not feel particularly flush right now, and there's no reason why they should. 

The economy will probably be the biggest single factor in the 2012 presidential election.  So far, not so good. 

March 19, 2011      Permalink

LATEST ON JAPAN'S NUCLEAR BATTLE – AT 10:28 A.M. ET:   As could reasonably be expected, some radioactivity has been found in some of Japan's food supply, especially in areas near the crippled nuclear plant.  This is a cause for concern, but certainly not for panic.    From The New York Times:

TOKYO — The government said Saturday that it had found higher than normal levels of radioactive materials in spinach and milk at farms near the ravaged nuclear power plants, the first confirmation by officials that the nuclear crisis unfolding at power plants nearby has affected the nation’s food supply.

While officials downplayed the immediate risks to consumers, the findings are likely to further unsettle a nation worried about the long-term effects of the damaged nuclear power plants. The crisis, which has entered its second week, has caused alarm in some countries that fallout from Japan might reach their shores.

At the current level of damage, the amount of fallout reaching the shores of the United States is insignificant. 

Tokyo Electric Power Company, with help from the Japan Self-Defense Force, police and firefighters, continued efforts to cool the damaged reactors on Saturday. About 500 workers from the utility connected a transmission line almost a mile long to Reactor No. 2 at the Fukushima Daiichi Power Station. They hope to restart a cooling system there on Sunday.

Restoring power at the reactor could provide a glimmer of hope after days of increasingly dire news that now includes contaminated food. Yukio Edano, the chief cabinet secretary, said that spinach and milk were the only two products that were found with abnormally high levels of radioactive materials. The newly discovered radioactivity contained in the average amount of spinach and milk consumed during an entire year would be equal to the amount received in a single CAT scan.

That puts it into perspective.  Obviously, should there be a complete catastrophe at the stricken plant, radiation levels could go higher, but that's what technicians are striving to prevent.  We will know more about this tomorrow, when attempts will be made to restart the cooling systems, which, if operating, can prevent a meltdown and subsequent spewing of high levels of radioactivity into the air.

At present, the nuclear "crisis" in Japan is no worse than our "crisis" at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, where no one died.  As for comparisons with Chernobyl, the old Soviet Union's worst nuclear failure, they are absurd.  The Soviets botched their entire response to the Chernobyl disaster, never even warning residents not to drink milk produced near the failed nuclear plant.  That milk was highly contaminated, and did indeed produce thousands of thyroid cancers.

Japan's handling of the present situation is far superior.  That does not release Japan from responsibility for the safety failures and allegedly lax management that led up to the Fukushima failure, but we should not let hysterical headlines sway us.

March 19, 2011       Permalink

WHAT CEASE-FIRE? – AT 10:11 A.M. ET:  The Libyan government announced a cease-fire yesterday.  The announcement does not seem to reflect reality.  From WaPo:

TRIPOLI, LIBYA — Forces loyal to Moammar Gaddafi entered the eastern rebel stronghold of Benghazi Saturday after shelling and fierce fighting, a fresh act of defiance even as the United States and its allies prepared to launch military attacks on Libya.

Government troops in tanks and trucks entered Benghazi from the west, in the university area, and began to shell the city, including civilian areas. Intense fighting broke out in some enclaves. The city of 1 million quickly became a ghost town, with residents fleeing or seeking cover in barricaded neighborhoods.

A warplane was shot down over Benghazi, and rebel leaders later claimed it as one of their own. While they said mechanical problems caused the crash, calls from mosques across the city suggested that friendly fire brought down the plane. “Don’t attack the airplanes because these are our planes,” a mosque preacher urged over loudspeakers.

On Friday, President Obama warned that the Libyan leader faced imminent military action unless his troops were withdrawn from all disputed cities in the country. But the besieged town of Misurata, 130 miles east of Tripoli, was still coming under heavy artillery fire, residents said, and there were also reports of continued fighting around Ajdabiya, even farther to the east. The assaults on rebel-held towns took place despite government promises of a cease-fire.

COMMENT:  Meanwhile, the president of the United States jetted off to Brazil and the secretary of state jetted over to Paris for still one more international meeting on Libya, to be held before any firm action is taken.

The reality is that the U.S. and Western Europe cannot wait many more hours before military action must start.  With the "cease-fire" a joke, we may only be looking at hours before the rebel cause collapses entirely.

March 19, 2011     Permalink

MARCH 18,  2011

EXCITING, EXCITING, EXCITING!! – AT 10:49 P.M. ET:  Get your checkbooks out, polish up those credit cards, test those magnetic stripes.  You will not want to miss the publishing event of the century.  From The New York Times:

The sexy female spy has a well-worn place in popular culture. Angelina Jolie, donning heavy black eyeliner and a slim trench coat, in “Salt.” Halle Berry in “Die Another Day,” seductively climbing out of the surf in an orange bikini.

Who better to roll her eyes at it all than Valerie Plame Wilson, the real-life glamorous former C.I.A. operative?

“They always tend to be cardboard characters, with a heavy reliance on physicality,” Ms. Wilson said, calling from her home in Santa Fe, N.M. “Of course the job has a lot of glamour. But it really is about being smarter than your average bear. Your mind is your best weapon. It’s great when you’re a good shot with an AK-47, but it’s about being clever.”

Fed up with those popular images of the female secret agent, Ms. Wilson decided to draft her own. Eight years after her cover was blown by the political columnist Robert Novak, she has signed a book deal with Penguin Group USA to write a series of international suspense novels, with a fictional operative, Vanessa Pearson, at the center. Ms. Wilson will write them with Sarah Lovett, a best-selling author of mysteries, who also lives in Santa Fe.

The idea for the books, Ms. Wilson said, “was born out of my frustration and continuing disappointment in how female C.I.A. officers are portrayed in popular culture.”

COMMENT:  Yeah, right.  I'll bet she was really frustrated, and thought about it every day.  My Gawd, we are a society in crisis, Ms. Plame must have thought, when female CIA officers are portrayed inaccurately.  It's the crisis of our time.

I assure you that money has nothing to do with this.  Choke.

And, of course, brave Valerie will have a co-author, who will actually write the book.  What will sell it, in the minds of publishing executives, will be the name "Valerie Plame."

Are these print-poisoned executives serious?  There is no name here.  There is nothing here.  Hollywood just made a film about Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame, and there were more people in the theaters selling popcorn than in the audience. 

It's pretty typical of New York publishing circles to think that the Valerie Plame story is still hot.  It was actually never very hot, or even lukewarm, except in the minds of America's liberal elites.  Now it is ice. 

But you can join the excitement for about the going price of a novel, and probably get invited to a really trendy party.

March 18, 2011       Permalink

LIBYA UPDATE – AT 10:16 P.M. ET:  President Obama, before leaving on an exciting, fun-filled trip to Latin America, made a bizarre statement to the American people today, explaining what action may be taken in Libya, following the adoption of a UN resolution authorizing force. 

The statement was bizarre for several reasons.  First, Obama sounded "tough," although he's been waffling for weeks.  It's reported that even Hillary Clinton was becoming fed up with him.  He's waffled so long that the rebels on the ground in Libya have lost almost everything they'd gained.  Also, it appeared to me that he sounded tough because some adviser told him to "sound tough" due to perceptions that he is weak.  Those aren't only perceptions.

Second, it was bizarre because Obama stressed that no American ground troops would ever be sent.  Now, I don't favor U.S. ground troops in Libya, but one of the first rules of strategy is never to tell your plans to the enemy.  One of the tragic reasons for the Korean War was that Secretary of State Dean Acheson, in a January, 1950 speech, left South Korea out of the U.S. defense line, sending a message to the Communist nations that we would not defend it.  North Korea, with massive Soviet help, invaded South Korea in June of that year. 

Third, on the single most important issue – Obama's previous insistence that Gaddafi had to go – the president was strangely silent today.  The signal:  We won't insist on that.  But if Gadaffi can remain in place, what is the point of this whole exercise?  Well, the president says it's humanitarian.  In that case, why aren't we asking for UN resolutions about Bahrain, Yemen, and a host of other places?  Our goals, and strategies, seem to change from day to day.

At last report, the cease-fire announced by the Libyan foreign minister this morning has not taken hold.  The next step may occur over the weekend, when, it's anticipated, France and Britain may send jets over Libya as a warning.  But, despite some table thumping by the president today, things seem very vague as to objective and willingness to use resrouces.  And the appearances created by Mr. Obama's "flying down to Rio" (from an old movie of the same name) are not very positive.

Stay tuned.  Be as tolerant as you can.  We don't have Churchill in the White House.

March 18, 2011      Permalink

IT ISN'T ONLY LIBYA – AT 10:49 A.M. ET:  There is new, serious violence in Yemen, a country that hosts one of the most insidious of the Al Qaeda groups.  This could spiral upward and become another Libya.  From The New York Times:

SANA, Yemen — Security forces and government supporters opened fire on demonstrators on Friday, killing at least 30, as the largest protest so far in Yemen came under violent and sustained attack in the center of the capital, Sana.

The toll mounted rapidly through the afternoon, as some of the more than 100 people wounded by gunfire or rocks hurled by government supporters succumbed to their injuries, according to several doctors at a makeshift hospital near the protest site.

A heavy cloud of black smoke rose over a downtown commercial district at the southern end of the protest, which swelled to tens of thousands of people and stretched for a mile from its center at Sana University.

Government supporters in plain clothes fired down on the demonstration from rooftops and windows almost immediately after the protesters rose from their noon prayers, conducted en masse in the street on Friday.

The shooting dwarfed the level of violence in previous clashes between supporters of President Ali Abdullah Saleh and protesters, who have called for the president’s ouster in weeks of large protests in cities around Yemen. But a crowd of mostly tribal men from the outskirts of the capital appeared to stand firm in the face of the chaotic attack by the government supporters.

COMMENT:  And please don't forget that Saudi troops are now in Bahrain.  The Mideast is rumbling. 

Oh, did you know that President Obama is going to South America this weekend?  You'd think he'd delay the trip, if for no other reason than appearances, as both Japan and the Mideast are in crisis.  But he's going to Rio.  Look, seeing the world is important.  You want the man to know things.

Yuch.

March 18, 2011       Permalink

A COLD, BRITISH ASSESSMENT OF OBAMA – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:  We've repeatedly said that some of the sharpest commentary on Obama has come from Britain, whose reporters have been far more direct about the president than have most of the in-the-tank commentators on this side of the Atlantic. 

Now London's Daily Express weighs in.  The comments are incisive, and cutting:

INEFFECTUAL, invisible, unable to honour pledges and now blamed for letting Gaddafi off the hook. Why Obama’s gone from ‘Yes we can’ to ‘Er, maybe we shouldn’t’...

Let us cast our minds back to those remarkable days in November 2008 when the son of a Kenyan goatherd was elected to the White House. It was a bright new dawn – even brighter than the coming of the Kennedys and their new Camelot. JFK may be considered as being from an ethnic and religious minority – Irish and Catholic – but he was still very rich and very white. Barack Obama, by contrast, was a true breakthrough president. The world would change because obviously America had changed.

Obama’s campaign slogan was mesmerisingly simple and brimming with self-belief: “Yes we can.” His presidency, however, is turning out to be more about “no we won’t.” Even more worryingly, it seems to be very much about: “Maybe we can… do what, exactly?“ The world feels like a dangerous place when leaders are seen to lack certitude but the only thing President Obama seems decisive about is his indecision. What should the US do about Libya? What should the US do about the Middle East in general? What about the country’s crippling debts? What is the US going to do about Afghanistan, about Iran?

What is President Obama doing about anything? The most alarming answer – your guess is as good as mine – is also, frankly, the most accurate one. What the President is not doing is being clear, resolute and pro-active, which is surely a big part of his job description.

COMMENT:  I wouldn't call that a vote of confidence.  George W. Bush may not have been wildly popular overseas, but at least he was decisive...and feared. 

We have to ask what we have gotten in more than two years of Barack Obama's administration.  The answer is, nothing.  Absolutely nothing.  If anything, we are weaker, poorer, less a world power. 

But the rock concerts at the White House are really neat.

March 18, 2011       Permalink

A JAPANESE DISGRACE – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:  We have, in recent days, praised the remarkable behavior of the Japanese people in the face of tragedy.  No looting.  No whining.  A great deal of hard work and maximum effort.

However, let's not go too far.  Japan, after all, does not have an entirely glorious history, as plenty of GI's found out in the Pacific some decades ago.  There is a dark side to Japanese culture and governance, and one part of that dark side is corruption.  The Bloomberg news organization has done some fine investigative reporting, and has come up with this:

The unfolding disaster at the Fukushima nuclear plant follows decades of falsified safety reports, fatal accidents and underestimated earthquake risk in Japan’s atomic power industry.

The destruction caused by last week’s 9.0 earthquake and tsunami comes less than four years after a 6.8 quake shut the world’s biggest atomic plant, also run by Tokyo Electric Power Co. In 2002 and 2007, revelations the utility had faked repair records forced the resignation of the company’s chairman and president, and a three-week shutdown of all 17 of its reactors.

With almost no oil or gas reserves of its own, nuclear power has been a national priority for Japan since the end of World War II, a conflict the country fought partly to secure oil supplies. Japan has 54 operating nuclear reactors -- more than any other country except the U.S. and France -- to power its industries, pitting economic demands against safety concerns in the world’s most earthquake-prone country.

Nuclear engineers and academics who have worked in Japan’s atomic power industry spoke in interviews of a history of accidents, faked reports and inaction by a succession of Liberal Democratic Party governments that ran Japan for nearly all of the postwar period.

COMMENT:  Clearly, a report like that will have repercussions here.  Critics of nuclear power, both honest and not, will seize upon corruption in Japan to warn of possible dishonesty and twisting of facts in the American nuclear industry, and they may well find some disturbing things.  Faking safety reports is not unknown in the United States.  We've had several scandals here in New York regarding payoffs to building inspectors.  The Indian Point nuclear facility, not far from where Urgent Agenda is written, is viewed with substantial suspicion by many residents of this area.

I believe in nuclear power, but also believe that issues of safety and reliability should be addressed with obsessive seriousness.  The left will oppose nuclear power because it opposes American industry and strength.  The right cannot respond with bland appeals to "the free enterprise system" or with disparaging remarks about "worriers."  Take the safety issue seriously, even establish new layers of protection.  Nuclear power has a good future, even a great one, but only if the public's safety concerns are addressed carefuly and maturely.

March 18, 2011       Permalink 

BULLETIN – AT 9:06 A.M. ET:  CNN is reporting that the Libyan foreign minister, Musa Kusa (yes, that's his name) has just declared a cease-fire.  Gee, what the threat of military force can do.  Imagine if our slow-motion president had issued this threat three weeks ago.

We have few details at this hour.  A cease-fire leaves Gadaffi in place as head of Libya.  But Obama has declared that Gadaffi must go. 

The foreign minister's statement said that the cease-fire was declared in an effort to "take the country back to safety and security for all Libyans."  Yeah, right.  It was issued because the boys at the top didn't want to look up and see a cruise missile coming.

Still developing.  Stand by.

March 18, 2011      Permalink

LIBYA – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  Although France is vowing quick action in Libya, following a UN Security Council vote authorizing military force, no action has begun.  And within Libya, although fighting continues, there has as yet been no major thrust by government forces against the rebels.

We learn of a briefing held yesterday afternoon in Washington.  From Foreign Policy:

Several administration officials held a classified briefing for all senators on Thursday afternoon in the bowels of the Capitol building, leaving lawmakers convinced President Barack Obama is ready to attack Libya but wondering if it isn't too late to help the rebels there.

Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Bill Burns led the briefing and was accompanied by Alan Pino, National Intelligence Officer for the Near East, Gen. John Landry, National Intelligence Officer for Military Issues, Nate Tuchrello, National Intelligence Manager for Near East, Rear Adm. Michael Rogers, Director of Intelligence for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Rear Admiral Kurt Tidd, Vice Director of Operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Several senators emerged from the briefing convinced that the administration was intent on beginning military action against the forces of Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi within the next few days and that such action would include both a no-fly zone as well as a "no-drive zone" to prevent Qaddafi from crushing the rebel forces, especially those now concentrated in Benghazi.

"It looks like we have Arab countries ready to participate in a no-fly and no-drive endeavor," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told reporters after the briefing.

Asked what he learned from the briefing, Graham said, "I learned that it's not too late, that the opposition forces are under siege but they are holding, and that with a timely intervention, a no-fly zone and no-drive zone, we can turn this thing around."

Asked exactly what the first wave of attacks would look like, Graham said, "We ground his aircraft and some tanks start getting blown up that are headed toward the opposition forces."

COMMENT:  Let's actually see what will happen.  We're watching this hour by hour.  There is, of course, the possibility of some diplomatic move by the Libyan government to keep itself in power while offering "negotiations."  It's an old ploy, but it often works.  We understand the Libyan foreign minister has scheduled a news conference for today.

Stand by.

March 18, 2011     Permalink